报告人:Prof.David A. Jay, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Portland State University, USA (2007- )
Global sea level rise is well documented. However, changes in high waters, including the tidal contribution, are sometimes more relevant than GSL rise. Analyses show thatK1and M2amplitudes (|K1| and |M2|) are increasing throughout the Eastern Pacific, except for |M2| in the Gulf of Panama. North of 18ºN, |K1| and |M2| are both growing at 2.2% century-1. The mean increase in total tidal amplitude (0.59mmyr-1) is less than the present GSL rise (1.7mmyr-1). However, mean sea level is nearly constant in the NE Pacific, so tidal evolution plays a major regional role in changes in high water levels. The spatial pattern of tidal evolution suggests the influence of large-scale processes, and the similarity in spatial patterns for |K1| and |M2| excludes mechanisms with strong frequency dependence. Increasing tidal amplitudes may impact ocean mixing, nutrient supply, primary production, fisheries, and coastal erosion.
Extension of this analysis to the entire Pacific Ocean is underway, with an expanded constituent set. A major part of our effort has been directed toward expanding the available data set by recovery of historic data, investigating the causes of decadal-scale fluctuations in tidal properties, and evaluating the role of harbor development in tidal evolution. Preliminary results for these efforts will be presented.